Posts Tagged ‘Food Prices’


Gulf Coast Oil Spill likely to hit consumers hard at the grocery store

Tuesday, May 4th, 2010

From www.shoppingcarteconomist.com

May is typically a month I look forward to because it means fresh fish right out of the ocean. Fish is one of the healthiest animal protein sources, and one many Americans just don’t get enough of in their diet.  Price is always the biggest factor for most shoppers as it relates to consumption. If fish is expensive, people will pass on it and look for cheaper protein sources.

However, Alaska fish are starting to run. May marks the beginning of King Salmon and halibut seasons. That means that there will be fresh goods heading to a store near you. It also means that previously caught salmon from last year’s season will be on sale. But, those sales aren’t going to last very long. If your family is a big consumer of fish, this might be the week to fill your freezer. Here’s why….

With the oil spill off the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf seafood market is at a stand-
still. The US government imposed a 10-day ban on fishing in the Gulf as they assess what kind of risk, both current and long-term, the oil spill will have on the health of not just fish and wildlife, but on those who consume Gulf coast harvests of fish, shrimp, and oysters.  According to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Gulf Coast fishing economy harvests about one-billion pounds of seafood a year.  A 10-day ban on fishing is essentially 27-million pounds of fish that are going to be out of circulation. It’s not clear that the ban will be lifted after 10 days.  So for every day Louisiana fishermen’s boats are out of the water, an average of 2.7M pounds of fish will not make it to US grocery stores.

As existing inventories get used up and supplies are depleted, it will likely put pressure on other regions like the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, as well as imports from Thailand and China, to fill the shortages.

It’s early into a catastrophe like this, and the oil spill drama is still unfolding. Scientists and fishermen alike can’t predict how the region and the fishing economy are going to be affected. It won’t be until they come out with some clear damage assessments that we’ll begin to see “shortage” reports on the news. So, in advance of what might be a likely outcome, my suggestion if you’re a big fish-eating family would be to bank some now in your freezer.

What to buy? Look for deals on sockeye salmon. Whole salmon is always a better deal than fillets. Buy the whole fish and have them cut/wrap the fish for free instead of buying the higher-priced, pre-cut fillets. Avoid farm-raised Atlantic salmon, even though it might be a bit cheaper. Wild is better for the fish runs, and better for you.

It’s also a perfect week to shop for seafood, because with Mother’s Day right around the corner, many chain stores advertise fresh seafood for “surf & turf” dinner promotions. That means there are fish, scallops, lobster tails, and shrimp on sale that were planned and ordered well before the oil spill in the Gulf.

It’s clear how one incident like a single oil spill can have far-reaching implications for those of us who might otherwise feel no connection to such an event.  Sadly, in this instance, an oil spill thousands of miles from many of our homes isn’t just going to affect the environment, or the livelihoods of those who fish the Gulf Coast, but the consumers. In this economy, many people are already struggling to put food on the table.  If the price of seafood likely climbs as a result of this disaster, a healthy protein source for many families will soon be out-of-reach.



Watch for Falling Food Prices and Snipe as Many Sales as You Can Before They’re Gone

Tuesday, October 7th, 2008

The state of the world financial markets has me mixed between elation and panic. I knew the market was in for a correction – many people did, but it was a matter of when and how much. I don’t think anyone could have predicted the global meltdown that we’re seeing with the market that we’ve seen in the past two weeks.

While I am glad for a market correction and recognize this as a sort of “coming out in the wash” for all the greed and corruption we’ve seen in the past dozen years coming off Wall Street, there is a small part of me that really gets doom and gloomy over what this means for our economy and the future of the US. It’s clearly going to affect the presidential election outcome (not necessarily to my liking) and for the conspiracy theorists out there who think this is the beginning of global monetization (the Amero as a new currency with Canada, US, and Mexico), it definitely is signaling something, but I’m not a real economist, so I can’t tell you what. (For that matter, I don’t think the real economists know either right now!!!)

What I do know is I believe there is going to be a dip in food prices that should send you running the store to stock up, and here’s why.

The price of oil fell very sharply which signals a weak demand which means that we’re looking at less economic output in the coming fiscal quarters. The result is that the decline of output means businesses are going to see less sales as consumers and businesses are hesitant to part with their money. Particularly in the business to business sector, this is going to really ring true. Think about the guy who sells farm equipment. If the farmers aren’t buying cause they have limited access to credit, there’s going to be some price-dropping across every part of the agricultural supply chain, including raw ingredients.

And on the consumer side of things, it means General Mills and Kellogg are going to duke it out for market share. Where I’m seeing this first is in small grocery stores that are trying to hold it together. Loss leaders are steep this week. One small store in my area has milk 2 for $3 – $1.50 a gallon. It’s been awhile since I’ve seen that price. Of course, loss leaders are really about getting people through the door to buy other goods, but that steep of loss leaders implies to me that we’re already starting to see pressure in the grocery market to be competitive. The big brands, who’ve been slammed with the messaging from the media to “buy generics” are ramping up marketing spends while cutting some prices. Even national chains like Kroger, Safeway, and Albertsons are changing their marketing tunes, and everything is “extreme buy” type sales. It’s the return of the true 10 for $10 sales. This week, orange juice 1/2 gallons at Fred Meyer, a local Kroger chain, are $1 each. That’s “extreme” compared to what it’s been in the past summer of high food price misery for consumers.

However, I don’t expect this to be the trend for long. It’s a dip in my opinion. We’re going to see some real competition for market share and tactics stores are going to use to get people through the door, particularly mass retail merchants like Kmart who offered double coupons last week and put a $5 off $50 coupon in the paper this week.

Once the dust settles and the losers have disappeared – either some brands changing hands or a few local stores closing, the decreased competition and decreased supply chain as farms and smaller food manufacturers are pushed out with lack of capital and declining sales, then we’ll see another spike in prices.

Again, all speculative, and all my opinion, but my opinions about the food industry have been pretty dead-on for several years now, so I feel pretty confident in passing on this opinion for you to do with as you see fit for your family. For me, it means I am going to take advantage of all the offers and sales I think are coming down the pipe in an effort to offset the money we’ve lost in the market this week. And in treating my own personal finances like business finances, if I can conserve my cash and accumulate some grocery inventory at the best possible prices, we’ll weather the storm in the long run.