The future, stockpiling and the economy

[uummm]

I am not sure where I should have put this, but I wanted some honest thoughts. My intention is for this NOT to turn political-this is referring to the future and the economy.

Lately, our best friends have been stockpiling like nuts...And although they have been couponers in the past, they are not up to the caliber that most of us are on here. The wife has always been more concerned with non food items like HBA and cleaners...never been real good at concentrating on the LOWEST oop she can do. I think part of it is may not totally understand how (but it isn't' for lack of teaching on my part). She is the type that does what she is told, but doesn't understand or care why. However, her husband the ACCOUNTANT with his MBA should be able to figure it out (Not to mention they know I can do it but don't bother asking me). Anyway the past several weeks they have REALLY been buying a lot, and not even trying to look for coupons (which I have told them in the past can be bought on ebay in the quantities they need-and I have bought with them!)...Like the 50+boxes of Land O lakes butter, the 15+family packs of chicken, 10 London Broils, 10 5# bags of flour (they aren't bakers either), and yesterday he told her to look out for Yeast, Rice (which he wouldn't allow in the house a few weeks ago) and noodles (he is a 100% believer that EVERYONE should be on an Atkins type diet)....She had been begging for a an additional frige for the garage for 6+ months and suddenly 2 weeks ago HE got one and he now has her on the hunt for a second chest 9 cu ft freezer.

They 100% whole heartedly believe that the country is going to go into super hyper inflation the beginning of the year. Talking about getting guns and ammo, to protect their food....They make it sound like the end of the world is coming!

They watch Glenn Beck and although I don't hate him, I do think he is a bit overboard and I can't stand to watch or listen to him more than once a week (it is just TOO MUCH!) though I don't watch him anymore.

I have a large stockpile, I have an upright freezer and a smaller 5cu ft freezer too...but I am not in some sort of panic mode-which to me it really looks like they are. I mean they have NO budget at all, just whip out the credit card (in their defense they do pay it off monthly). They have to have spent well over $2500 in the past 30 days in groceries, hba (I think she can't not buy that stuff) and cleaning stuff. In shopping with her, I also find myself buying more-I have already blown through my grocery budget for the month of December with more meat rebates yet to do. I know that doing this stockpiling of good price stuff, like the chicken was $1.77lb which is a VERY good price and the London broil was $2.47lb-again a great price, isn't bad.... but I have to pull back the reigns on myself constantly (I tend to have an OCD personality). We are waiting for them to start stockpiling the gold...My DH is excited only because he wants to see an actual bar of it.

I don't know- how do others think about the whole thought of hyper inflation?

I think most all of us see the smaller packaging at what used to be a large package price...Ice cream now 1.5qts, toilet paper the roll isn't as wide, cereal boxes getting smaller, some pastas aren't a pound in a box anymore, coffee went from 1lb to 10-12 oz...

[Doglover8180]

If they are paying with a credit card - that means they dont have the money to buy what they are buying - which is always a big red flag.... If I can't afford something, I don't buy it - so it looks like they really can't afford what they are buying so it seems like a bad idea to me.... Also, stuff doesnt last forever - 50 bottles of laundry detergent - it isnt going to be quite the same in 5 years as it is today...ya know? I don't need a 10 year supply, ya know? And it sounds like they aren't even getting incredible deals.

[queenofthehivemomof5]

Well first off you should not be buying your stockpile all at once it should be built slowly over time, with coupons and sales at the lowest prices. Just like buying stocks, buy low.

I don't think we are going to see hyper inflation but I do think the economy is going to get worse rather than better for many folks and I hope people prepare as best as they can for that possibility. If that means bumping up on the couponing and really building that stockpile or socking away any extra cash in an emergency fund and cutting costs now before it gets bad. I know that there are a lot of folks out there that cannot cut costs anymore than they have already and a fear for them as they will probably be the hardest hit.

I don't pay a lot of attention to the talking heads this knowing about the economy comes from just watching the prices in the grocery store, paying attention to what is going on in the nation and world and overall a gut feeling. Julie and I talk about this stuff all the time and she agrees with me that it is going to get worse before it gets better.

Packaging will shrink which is what manufactures have done in the past instead of raising the prices of everything they will just put less in the packaging thinking that most folks won't notice. Since we use coupons though we can still get good deals oz. per oz., roll by roll, etc. If a 10 oz. package is on sale for $2.00 and we use coupons to get it for $1.00 or a 16 oz. package is on sale for $2.00 and we get it for a $1.00 we are still ahead of those that buy it at the $2 sale price or God forbid the folks that pay non sale price at $4.00!

I also think gardening is going to go big this next growing season as more folks look for ways to grow their own food even if just a small garden patch or plants on the patio. Fresh produce is a budget buster and I know a lot of families that eat very little to zero fresh fruits and veggies because they cannot afford them.

[shashabell]

It does sound like they're going to the exteme. Paranoia will get ya everytime.

[CW&M Mom]

I see hyperinflation paranoia on FB all the time...and basically to me...it's mostly just bunk.

Chocolate prices are gonna triple, cotton prices are gonna triple bla bla bla.

heck when we actually saw hyperinflation with Gas prices...we still didn't see triple prices on the goods we use.

I think there are extreme right nut jobs that wanna scare people...so they make up crap like that. Anything legit on either side...just rolls it's eyes at the speculation.

[Zwella Ingrid]

Logically, with the amount of debt the U.S. has, you know that things will only get worse. There is no possible way it won't get worse. That said, I do think you need to not let yourself get overly paranoid. I think building a stockpile is a great idea in any economy, but you have to use your head, and clearly these people are not. I think it would be wise for all of us to pull in our horns, pay off our debt, build our stockpiles and try to live as frugally as we can, but without going extreme, or sucking all the joy out of our lives in the process. I make it a practice not to listen to the news, because I think you can drive yourself insane with worry, but instead use a strong dose of common sense.

[rachellepeters]

Personally, I'm not worried about inflation....we've found a way to beat it with our coupons and smart shopping thanks to this site and others. Everyone always said, you'll go broke buying diapers and formula...heck still working on getting preggers again and have 10 cases of free diapers, 3 coupons for frees, and 5 cans of formula and not pregnant (yet again). Just need to get the BFP before those can's expire! lol SO I"m truly prepared to not pay anything for those items once it happens! Others may get hurt my inflation on food etc, but I've cut my grocery store trips back to what prices would have been in the 20s....so I've already got an 80 year headstart :) I think we're just fine here...let everyone else panic and we'll just keep plugging away getting free's every week.

[CTCMC]

If they are paying with a credit card - that means they dont have the money to buy what they are buying - which is always a big red flag.... If I can't afford something, I don't buy it - so it looks like they really can't afford what they are buying so it seems like a bad idea to me.... Also, stuff doesnt last forever - 50 bottles of laundry detergent - it isnt going to be quite the same in 5 years as it is today...ya know? I don't need a 10 year supply, ya know? And it sounds like they aren't even getting incredible deals.

Not necessarily so. I buy everything with a rewards credit card. I just want the points. Haven't carried a balance in many, many years. Most often I pay off the credit card charge on the same day using my online bill pay. Before the statement even comes, my monthly charges and my monthly payments are the same. I don't pay ANY interest charges. Ever. The credit card company isn't making any money off of me. I have, however, paid for some nice little get-aways using my points. Go, me!

(Full disclosure: This isn't for everyone. You need to be organized and disiplined. I couldn't have pulled this off when the kids were younger. Life was just too chaotic, and I didn't have the online system to track and pay all the charges I made.)

As far as stockpiling and inflation, I do think that our ecomony is at risk for serious inflation. That's a risk, not a certainty. Why? The federal government is borrowing, what?, 42cents of every dollar it spends. The pressure to allow the dollar to devalue is going to be intense. That is, if we even get that far.
I think it's just as likely that the buyers of our bonds are going to down-grade us or even say "No More".
Either way, we will experience a huge jolt to our standard of living.
Having some food independence is always a good idea. Those of us who have been living and shopping sensibly (thank you HCW!) will be ahead of the game. Increasing our stockpiles, again sensibly, seems a good idea.
Going to extremes is rarely a good idea.

[Mothernature]

My husband is a CPA. He is not worried about hyperinflation in the immediate future. This is a valid worry though. As more people become unemployed and UI benefits are cut, the spending power is not there. America is also very indebted to China. It is only a matter of time before the roof collapses.

A family friend just lost her remaining UI benefits. She is an insulin dependent type 2 diabetic. Her adult sons who have 3 kids each, are paying her rent, insurance, insulin, etc. We last heard that she has fought with both so much that the sons may stop paying.

I have IL's who refuse to lower their living expenses after my FIL lost his benefits plus 75% of his income. They are dirt poor and have nothing as much as they deny it. They've jumped on the coupon band wagon and starting to super coupon. I help where I can: bringing $1000 worth of stockpile in a few weeks, help them pick up holidays gifts for cheap and free, give them deal tips as I find them. However, none of this will negate their expensive rent and cost of all utilities.

We shop warehouse. I've noticed items are going up $2-4 but the package size are not decreasing. The rare items we purchase at a regular grocery store have dropped in the price but appear the same size; I haven't checked labels lately.

I received a letter that my test strips are changing tiers so the price will increase beginning next month. I suspect we'll see complaints in the next 3-4 months regarding increasing co-pays. This downturn is not limited to food.

[Mothernature]

I wanted to add. Doglover has a point. You may want to pointt out shelf life when you shop with her. Liquid v powered, shelf stable v fridge, etc.