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Reply With QuoteI know, it's horrible and heartbreaking that one of America's most productive states has been driven into the ground by unions and progressive government. The country as a whole would do well to observe the lesson.
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Leaving Michigan, 109,000 more people left Michigan 2008 than moved in, The state loses a family every 12 minutes Last Updated: April 02. 2009 1:00AM
Leaving Michigan Behind: Eight-year population exodus staggers state
Outflow of skilled, educated workers crimps Michigan's recovery
Ron French and Mike Wilkinson / The Detroit News
Joe LaCross drives American cars. Always has. Born and raised in the blue-collar suburbs of Detroit, this son of a welder wouldn't dream of rolling past his autoworker neighbors in a Toyota. But not long ago the 38-year-old pulled into the driveway of his Sterling Heights home in a vehicle wreaking even more havoc in his home state.
A moving van.
"I grew up here," said LaCross, as he packed to move to Florida in search of a job. "My family is here. My wife's family is here. I love everything about Michigan.
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"Everything," he said, picking up a plastic storage tub, "except the economy."
People are leaving Michigan at a staggering rate. About 109,000 more people left Michigan last year than moved in. It is one of the worst rates in the nation, quadruple the loss of just eight years ago. The state loses a family every 12 minutes, and the families who are leaving -- young, well-educated high-income earners -- are the people the state desperately needs to rebuild.
Long treated as a symptom of Michigan's economic woes, outmigration has exploded into a massive problem of its own, a slow-motion Katrina splintering families, gutting state coffers and crippling an already hobbled economy, one moving van at a time.
"I never thought I'd leave," said LaCross, looking around his empty Michigan home. "What happens now?"
Poorer, less educated
Michigan's exodus is one of the state's best known but least understood problems. Long ignored or downplayed, outmigration has been shrugged off partly because it was assumed that those who were leaving were unemployed blue-collar workers and retirees, groups that, in economic terms, don't cripple the state with their departure.
But a Detroit News analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and Internal Revenue Service data reveals that every day, Michigan gets less populated, less educated, and poorer because of outmigration.
The state's net loss to outmigration -- the number of people leaving the state minus those moving in from other states -- has skyrocketed since 2001. Although the Census Bureau does not report totals moving in and out each year, Internal Revenue Service records show that the population decline is a result of two disturbing trends: The number of Michigan residents leaving the state rose 25 percent between 2001 and 2007, while the number of new residents moving in plummeted by nearly one-third.
Since 2001, migration has cost Michigan 465,000 people, the equivalent of the combined populations of Grand Rapids, Warren and Sterling Heights -- the state's second-, third- and fourth-largest cities.
Population loss of that magnitude is so rare that its impact has never been studied. But The News' analysis discovered some sobering trends:
• Those leaving Michigan are the people the state most needs to keep -- young and college-educated. The state suffered a net loss to migration of 18,000 adults with a bachelor's degree or higher in 2007 alone -- the equivalent of half the staff of the University of Michigan crossing the state line.
"We're home-grown," lamented Dave Stefanic, a former Ford engineer, who with his surgical assistant wife, Cindi, moved to South Carolina in January, leaving behind the dream home they built in Brownstown Township. "To have to leave Michigan because of the economy ... it's depressing."
Dave and Cindi both have college degrees. Dave was laid off from Ford six months ago, but didn't put his house on the market for four more months, hoping to find work in the area. "All the offers I got were out of state," he said.
Those with college educations were more likely to move than those without a degree. One-quarter of adults still in Michigan have at least a four-year college degree, compared to 39 percent of those who left.
In simplest terms, those with the skills to leave Michigan are doing so; high-skilled people from other states who once might have moved to Michigan are choosing to go elsewhere.
"Migration is good for the migrants but bad for the state they're leaving," said Mark Partridge, an economics professor at Ohio State University who specializes in the study of migration patterns. "It's a vicious downward cycle; the best and brightest leave; entrepreneurs don't come to the state because the best and brightest are elsewhere; as more people leave, that leaves fewer people to pay for services. Neither one will make Michigan a very appealing place."
• Michiganians who fled the state in 2007 took with them almost $1.2 billion more in paychecks than the paychecks of those moving in. That represents a 45 percent increase in lost wages in just one year, money no longer spent in Michigan businesses, paying mortgages or paying taxes.
Those leaving Michigan had incomes 20 percent higher than those who moved here ($49,700 to $40,000), a disturbing reversal of a long-standing trend.
And those figures don't take into account the "ripple effect" those paychecks would have had here -- an estimated $3.7 billion.
• The net loss of school-age children was more than 12,000 in 2007 alone, costing individual school districts roughly $84 million in state aid.
• With about 36,000 more households leaving the state than moving in, that leaves 36,000 empty houses and apartments, damaging already weak home values. "When there are more properties on the market, it drives down prices," said Ron Walraven, a real estate agent in West Bloomfield. "With the layoffs and the buyouts at the auto companies, people are leaving. Some are just abandoning their homes."
• People moving from state to state are disproportionately young. While almost 13 percent of Michigan's population is over 65, only 2.5 percent of those leaving are that old. That means outmigration is adding to the costs associated with an aging population, such as the state's share of Medicaid payments to retirement homes.
• There will be fewer tax dollars to pay for those services, maintain roads or run schools. According to Senate Fiscal Agency estimates, the income leaving the state cost Michigan more than $100 million in personal income tax revenue in 2007 alone.
The impact on communities is harder to quantify, with each departure pulling a thread from the social fabric. The loss of LaCross means a group of buddies will no longer have his trailer to use to go to deer camp; his brother-in-law, Steven Selva, who moved to Florida with LaCross, left a girls softball team without a coach.
"We've got deep roots -- I've got tons of family here," said Vivian Matti, who told her parents over Thanksgiving dinner that she and her family were moving to Coco Beach, Fla.
Over turkey and dressing, the 35-year-old told an achingly familiar story of lost jobs and a foreclosed home. "I've been in Michigan for 15 years and my husband for 30," Matti said. "We're all depressed we're leaving, but there's no other choice."
• As Michigan loses population and other states gain, the state is likely to lose more congressional seats, resulting in less clout in Congress. Electoral votes -- based on congressional seats -- probably will decline, giving Michigan less influence in presidential elections when votes are reallocated in 2010.
"These numbers -- my God," said Kurt Metzger, a demographer who heads a local nonprofit. "It's like a perfect storm -- the education, the income, the young people, everything is going in the wrong direction."
Recovery gets harder
As bad as the outmigration numbers are now, Metzger worries they may get worse.
"The pattern used to be that people would move away from Michigan and then move back," Metzger said. "Now, people are moving and then drawing the rest of their (extended) family with them."
Gina Damuth's husband, Fred Damuth, was laid off from Pfizer in 2007. Later that year, they moved from Farmington Hills to North Carolina.
Now, Gina Damuth has convinced her parents to move to North Carolina, too.
"I feel so bad for the people stuck in Michigan," said Damuth, 34. "I was in the Detroit area recently and I didn't realize the number of people who walk with their head down. You can see it if you pay attention -- nobody smiles, everybody looks depressed. My dad says it's scarier now. People are talking about how they don't know if Michigan is going to recover this time."
That recovery will be harder because of the people who have left, said University of Michigan economist Don Grimes. "You can't grow your economy if you're shrinking. You basically have an infrastructure built around a certain size of economy, and if you shrink below that scale, you have fewer people to support the infrastructure."
That can mean higher taxes, poorer services or both.
Some of those costs won't be felt for decades.
"When you lose people in their 20s, in five years, you won't have their kids entering school; in 20 years, you won't have their kids entering the work force," Grimes said. "It puts you in a downward spiral."
Indeed, demographers have said the sharp population losses from 1979 to 1983, when the state lost nearly a half-million people in four years, created an "echo dip" in the state's population nearly two decades later. The current migration, which has seen similar total losses, has lasted twice as long.
'What can you do?'
In Sterling Heights, Joe LaCross Jr.'s father, Joe LaCross Sr., tears up as he helps his "No. 1 son" load his belongings into a van to move across the country.
"You may never see me again," LaCross Sr. said.
"Oh come on," said his son.
The father brought a bottle of his best home-made cherry wine for his son to take to Florida; a piece of the family, a piece of Michigan.
"It's terrible for the people in Michigan," LaCross Sr. said. "It's a beautiful state. But what can you do? You have to work."
Re: Leaving Michigan, 109,000 more people left Michigan 2008 than moved in, The state loses a family every 12 minutes I know, it's horrible and heartbreaking that one of America's most productive states has been driven into the ground by unions and progressive government. The country as a whole would do well to observe the lesson.
Re: Leaving Michigan, 109,000 more people left Michigan 2008 than moved in, The state loses a family every 12 minutes I find this all very interesting because my dh currently has a head hunter calling him every day about a job in SW MI. I think the guy is having a hard time finding anyone who wants to move to MI. Heck, I'm not sure I do after hearing all you talk. The only positive I see is that it would be right on the lake. Would you move to MI if you had a choice?
Re: Leaving Michigan, 109,000 more people left Michigan 2008 than moved in, The state loses a family every 12 minutes I don't know if this was a general question or directed at someone in particular--but as for me and my DH, if that was the ONLY job that was being offered, I guess we would have no choice. But otherwise, no way would we move to MI.Originally Posted by taylordvd
BTW--I just noticed something that I overlooked earlier.
If he's looking for work in FL I think he's barking up the wrong tree. But I guess FL is probably better than MI."I grew up here," said LaCross, as he packed to move to Florida in search of a job.
Re: Leaving Michigan, 109,000 more people left Michigan 2008 than moved in, The state loses a family every 12 minutes There was actually another article saying even more people would move if they could get out from under their house.
Last Updated: April 02. 2009 1:00AM
Leaving Michigan Behind
More might go -- if they could
Region's depressed housing values mean that some can find work elsewhere, but can't afford to leave
Ron French / The Detroit News
Pontiac -- Cathy Owens desperately wants to join the Michigan residents who have fled the state. But the deflating economy that makes her want to leave is the same force that keeps her here.
Flooded with job offers elsewhere but stuck with a condominium worth $50,000 less than she owes, the 37-year-old Pontiac woman is the mirror image of Michigan's almost half-million recession refugees -- an economic prisoner with no chance for parole anytime soon.
"It's one thing to not be able to find a job," said Owens, an education consultant. "It's another to have to turn down great opportunities because you can't sell your house."
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As bad as Michigan's exodus has become, it could be even worse if thousands of frustrated homeownerslike Owens could leave. Residents trying to escape Michigan's hard times today are finding their path to the border more difficult than those who left in recent years. Jobs in other states, plentiful through much of Michigan's recession, are drying up. And those who find jobs elsewhere often struggle to sell their Michigan homes.
About 109,000 more people left Michigan in 2008 than moved in, quadruple the number from the beginning of the decade. Dana Johnson, senior vice president and chief economist for Comerica Bank, says that number represents only a portion of the people who want to leave.
"A lot of people who'd like to pull up stakes and try to start someplace else don't want to take the hit to the equity on their houses and are instead waiting it out for a while," Johnson said.
Owens accepted a job with a Dallas education consulting firm
"In March (2007), they asked me to move to Dallas," Owens said. "I bought my condo for $175,000 and still owed $150,000, and three condos in my neighborhood had just sold for $90,000. The Realtor said price it at $100,000 or forget it."
Owens moved to Dallas for 10 months, paying a mortgage in Michigan and rent in Texas, before giving up and moving back. She kept her condo, but lost her job.
She now drives 90 miles each day to a consulting job in Lansing. "I could take my pick where I wanted to live and work," Owens said. "I could work as a teacher, a principal or a consultant. I have contacts in Atlanta, D.C., New Jersey. People are offering me jobs everywhere. But nobody wants to buy this house from me in Michigan. I'm stuck here with the market in the toilet."
There were twice as many houses on the market in Metro Detroit in January 2009 (53,815) than there were in January 2005 (26,983), while the median sale price has plummeted by two-thirds, from $156,000 in January 2005 to $47,000 in January 2009, according to RealComp.
Ironically, an improved economy and a rebounding housing marketcould, in the short run, increase outmigration, because of the pent-up demand to leave. "There might be a phantom supply of houses out there (for sale), people who will put their homes back on the market when things stabilize," Johnson said.
Mike and Elizabeth O'Donnell won't be among those waiting.
The Clarkston couple hung on as long as they could in Michigan, waiting for their home to sell. In March, they decided the risk of staying put was greater than the risk of moving with their house still unsold.
They're renting a home
Staying in Michigan was "like having a wound that you keep picking at and it keeps getting worse," Elizabeth O'Donnell said. "We just couldn't hack it anymore."
For them, moving with their Clarkston home still unsold means possible bankruptcy. For those left behind, it means one more house on the market at a fire sale
"Everybody's in the same boat," Elizabeth O'Donnell said. "The whole thing is overwhelming."
Re: Leaving Michigan, 109,000 more people left Michigan 2008 than moved in, The state loses a family every 12 minutes Half of university grads flee Michigan
State tries to bolster grad rates, but growing number move away
Ron French / The Detroit News
Chicago -- Gov. Jennifer Granholm must see Emily Zuker in her nightmares.
Young, bright and college-educated, the Michigan State University grad got her degree in 2006 and immediately moved to Chicago -- now home to the largest concentration of recent MSU grads in the nation.
"It's just like being back at Michigan State," said Zuker, 25.
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Except that it's not in the state of Michigan.
At a time when Granholm is pushing to double the number of college grads, the number of grads leaving the state has doubled instead.
Half of Michigan's college grads now leave the state within a year of graduation, taking with them their diplomas and the talent needed to help rebuild Michigan's economy.
"Every time we lose a student, we're losing part of the talent pool the state needs," said Michael Boulus, executive director of the Presidents Council, State Universities of Michigan. "The states with the most talent win."
Green-and-white Spartan flags fly in the doorway of O'Malley's West. A neon MSU football helmet perches above the bar. Autographed jerseys of Mateen Cleaves, who led the school to its last NCAA basketball title, and former quarterback Drew Stanton hang on the walls near a big-screen TV that always shows MSU games.
One of the most die-hard Spartan sports bars is west of campus -- 225 miles west, in the trendy Lincoln Park neighborhood of Chicago.
There are more recent MSU grads in Chicago than in any other metro area -- including any community in Michigan. While the Windy City has always been a destination for Spartan grads, the number going there -- and other vibrant urban centers such as Minneapolis and New York -- is growing.
The number leaving the state has doubled since 2001, from 24 percent to 49 percent, according to a school survey.
Michigan-native grads of the University of Michigan are even more likely to leave -- 53 percent left in 2008, according to U-M.
By contrast, a similar survey at North Carolina State, found only 30 percent of graduates left North Carolina.
In some high-demand fields, the talent hemorrhaging is even worse.
"There's no longer a glut of 50 of them (engineering grads) going to GM every year," said Garth Motschenbacher, director of employer relations in MSU's College of Engineering.
Granholm's goal in danger
Other Michigan colleges are witnessing the same exodus. A first-of-its-kind survey of all 2007 Michigan public university graduates, conducted by Michigan Future, Inc., revealed that half of grads left the state within a year.
"People are just starting to care about this," said Michigan Future President Lou Glazer. "They're just starting to understand that college grads drive the economy."
Saying that college grad rates must increase for Michigan to remain competitive, Granholm set a goal in 2004 of doubling the number of college graduates.
Since then, the number graduating from Michigan colleges has inched upward from 38,615 in 2004 to 41,250 in 2008.
But the burgeoning exodus of college grads has wiped out that gain.
The biggest beneficiaries of Granholm's efforts so far have been states like Washington, where officials bluntly describe the influx of thousands of college-educated workers from Michigan as a cost-effective approach to education.
"That we can attract those people (with degrees) is a benefit to the state," said Washington state Rep. Glenn Anderson, the ranking Republican on the higher education committee. "We are importing intellectual capital at a very low cost to ourselves."
So many college grads have flooded into Washington to work for companies such as Boeing and Microsoft, that Anderson has had trouble pushing for increased higher education funding for in-state students.
Indeed, since 2000, Washington has jumped from 18th to 12th in the nation in the percentage of adults with a degree. Michigan fell from 30th to 35th.
"We're getting a lot of people, bright people, and that's good," said State Rep. Mike Sells, D-Everett.
You don't need a college degree to know what happens to Michigan if the trend continues. "If we don't get younger and better educated," Boulus said, "we're going to get poorer."
Large tax impact looms
Twelve percent of the members of the MSU Class of 2007 live in Chicago -- three times more than live in Detroit, according to data from MSU and Michigan Future.
For the 22,000 MSU alumni who live in the Chicago metro area, "psychologically, it's not like they moved away," said Kelley Bishop, MSU director of career services. "Of course, from a taxpayer perspective, it's quite a distance."
On average nationally, those earning bachelor's degrees today can expect to earn $900,000 more over their lifetimes than those with only a high school diploma, according to the Census Bureau.
Multiply that by Michigan's net loss of 18,000 people with college degrees in 2007 alone, and Michigan faces a devastating future loss in tax revenue.
Though he doesn't have data, Bishop says he believes many college grads move back to Michigan eventually. But other studies show that if expats don't move back before they marry and have children, they won't at all.
"If they're in Chicago and get married, they're more likely to move to a Chicago suburb than back to Michigan," Glazer said.
In fact, 63 percent of college grads who had moved out of the state said they had no intention of ever moving back.
"When the state is trying to foster higher education because we know business follows talent, what do you do when your best and brightest won't stay?" asked a frustrated Kurt Metzger, demographer and director of the Detroit Area Community Indicators System, a Detroit-based think tank.
"We're in a fight for college graduates," Metzger said, "and we're losing."
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